Inside the Engine: How Our World Cup Prediction Model Actually Works

Two layers, one rule: never invent data

Every prediction is produced in two stages. First, a deterministic statistical model converts FIFA ranking, team ratings, recent form, and goal records into expected goals via a Poisson score matrix. Probabilities always sum to exactly 100%.

Second, a language model writes the analysis: key factors, risk factors, explanation. It is hard-constrained to reference only the data the statistical model used — it cannot change the numbers or invent injuries.

Why we publish our accuracy

We score every prediction against the real result: winner accuracy, exact-score accuracy, and high-confidence accuracy. Exact scores are genuinely hard — even elite models land under 25%. We show honest numbers.

AI analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice.